*Data analysis provided by USA Swimming Data Scientist, Ty Gibbs.

We’ve all thought about it, but does an Olympic year really affect athletes’ performance? According to the data, there is a correlation.

As USA Swimming Data Scientist Ty Gibbs dove into the results of the 2024 Speedo Winter Junior Championships, he found that in every Olympic year, there was a large upward spike in the number of athletes who earned lifetime bests. In fact, the 2016, 2021, and 2024 editions of Junior Nationals have the highest number of lifetime bests over the past decade. Look at the line graph to see the difference between the non-Olympic and Olympic years.

Diving deeper into the 2024 Speedo Winter Junior Championships results, Gibbs found two additional correlations:

1. Looking specifically at the top 31 teams in both the East and West locations, the average head coach tenure is 23.5 years. Experience is vital for clubs looking to earn Junior meet points.
2. Out of the top 31 teams in each location (62 total), 55 have a Club Excellence medal.

Although many teams excelled at both locations, two stood out to Gibbs:

1. Bend Swim Club (BEND) had the highest lifetime best percentage of any team with a total of 86.36%. Additionally, the team placed second overall in time improvement rates with an average drop of 2.23%. Finally, BEND placed 20th at their location, despite being in the bottom quartile of club size to all the top-scoring teams.
2. Pikes Peak Athletics (PPA) ranked third in percentage of lifetime bests (77.27%) and in time improvement rates (1.82%). The team placed 15th in their respective meet despite being in the bottom half of club size to all the top-scoring teams.

The Tables below feature the highest club total improvement rates, highest athlete lifetime bests per club, and individual athlete improvement rates.

Congratulations to all the clubs and athletes who participated in the 2024 Speedo Winter Junior Championships!

*Notes on analysis:

• All teams analyzed have more than five individual swimmers to prevent outliers.
• Team spotlight for “top scoring teams” was captured from total club size in numbers, not percentages.
• Lifetime best percentage indicates the number of lifetime bests per individual swimmer’s events. Their fastest time from each event was taken, so multiple swims do not count against the percentage total. Improvement rate is the percentage difference of time from a previous lifetime best to the fastest swim per swimmer and event.