Looking at the historical data of what time it takes to qualify for semifinals (top-16), finals (top-8), and the Olympic Team (top-2*), the men’s 100-meter butterfly is all over the map. The history of the event, and the swimmers who competed, don’t show a lot of correlation between semifinals, finals, and making the Team. However, when diving deeper, it makes a lot more sense. For example, when an athlete has the top five times in the world for a single event, they can potentially save some energy while progressing from prelims to finals.

The men’s 100m butterfly has been sprinkled with legends since 2000 Trials, when Ian Crocker placed first to make his first Olympic Team. In 2004, he placed first at Trials again, touching out USA Swimming legend Michael Phelps with a world record swim of 50.76. That year, the Crocker-Phelps duo claimed the fastest qualifying time for the Games in the 100m butterfly in recent years. This shows the competition was close between the two down to the final touch.

In 2008, Phelps touched out Crocker for a first-place spot on the Olympic Team, while also qualifying for seven other events. He later set a record in Beijing for earning eight gold medals in a single Olympic Games. Since 2008, the qualifying time to represent the United States at the Games has steadily decreased. While there were many competitors, Phelps dominated the space in 2008, 2012, and 2016.

In 2020, Caeleb Dressel broke out as a leading male athlete in the event, claiming the first-place finish to Tom Shields by almost two seconds.

With Dressel driving towards a comeback over the past two years, he has a real shot at claiming another trip to the Games in the event. Breakout star and 2023 World Aquatics Championship bronze medalist Dare Rose is looking to make his first Olympic Team appearance alongside four-time USA Swimming National Team athlete Shaine Casas. With about a half a second between the top three athletes, it could be anyone’s race.

For more on the competition, visit www.usaswimming.org/Trials. 

*Top-2 have historically made the Olympic Team in each event. However, this depends on available spots for the team.